Market update as of mid-November 2026.
If your shipments to or from the UAE are taking longer and costing more this year, you are not alone. Here is a plain-language update from the Lucid Shipping team on what is happening, why, and what to expect over the coming months.
Why are there delays?
Since early March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been severely restricted following the conflict involving Iran. Before the war, around 85 commercial ships crossed the strait every day. In the past week the average has been about six a day, under 10% of normal.
For container cargo, this means most mainline vessels can no longer call directly at Jebel Ali and other ports inside the Gulf. Instead, many carriers now:
- discharge cargo at ports outside the strait, such as Khor Fakkan, Fujairah, Sohar or Salalah
- move containers by road (a “land bridge”) to their final destination in the UAE
- use smaller feeder vessels for some upper Gulf ports
Every extra step means more handling, more coordination and more time. Port congestion on the east coast and schedule changes at short notice add further delays.
What is happening around UAE shipping now?
- Jebel Ali remains fully operational, but far fewer large vessels can reach it. Its volumes dropped sharply this year.
- DP World has moved large volumes through alternative corridors, expanded its trucking fleet, and announced new deep-water terminals on the UAE’s east coast, outside the strait.
- No peace agreement has been reached. A ceasefire agreed in June expired in August, and October saw the highest number of shipping incidents since the conflict began.
- The Red Sea route is also under pressure, with traffic through Bab al-Mandab reduced again since July.
What about global shipping?
Outside the Gulf, the picture is mixed. Drewry’s World Container Index fell 2% this week to $4,305 per 40ft container. Rates from Asia to the US are softening because of weaker demand, while Asia to Europe and the Mediterranean are expected to rise slightly in the coming weeks as carriers cancel sailings. Schedule reliability remains low worldwide.
Where are rates going?
For cargo to and from the Gulf, rates remain high. Most carriers still apply emergency, war-risk and congestion surcharges on UAE cargo, typically adding thousands of dollars per container on top of the base freight. Peak season surcharges for the Middle East apply from 16 November. These charges change often, sometimes after booking, so always ask for an itemised quote.
The next few months
In our view, three scenarios are possible:
- The situation stays as it is (most likely in the short term). Land bridge routing, surcharges and longer transit times continue. Plan for extra days and keep buffer stock.
- A diplomatic breakthrough. If shipping through Hormuz reopens safely, direct calls to Jebel Ali could resume gradually. Surcharges would ease, but congestion would take weeks to clear.
- Escalation. Further incidents could bring more surcharges, fewer sailings and higher insurance costs.
Outlook
Looking further ahead, the global container fleet is growing faster than demand. Industry analysts expect spot rates on main global routes to fall in 2027. For the Gulf, however, rates will depend mainly on security in the region rather than on vessel supply. Until Hormuz returns to normal, UAE shippers should expect higher costs and longer, less predictable transit times.
Our advice
- Book early and confirm the vessel, voyage and discharge port in writing
- Ask for a full breakdown of surcharges before you confirm
- Build extra days into your delivery plans
- Consider FCL instead of LCL where volumes allow, as LCL carries a heavier share of surcharges
- Talk to us before you ship, so we can suggest the best routing for your cargo
Talk to Lucid Shipping
Central Plaza Building, Unit 14, Ground Floor,
Dubai Investment Park First, Dubai, UAE
Tel: +971 4 458 7610
lucidshipping.com
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